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For experienced Forex traders
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Zero losses, Unlimited profits
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Market Analysis
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Dow theory
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Technical analysis is based on the Dow Theory, which rests on a number of fundamental assumptions:
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Price is a comprehensive reflection of all market forces. All the fundamental indicators described above almost immediately find expression in market pricing.
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Price movements are trend followers. There are three types of trends: primary, secondary and daily fluctuations.
Primary trend: A primary trend remains in effect until definitive signals prove otherwise.
Secondary trend: A secondary trend reacts against the primary trend, and is a temporary phenomenon. In a bull market, a secondary trend is called a correction; in a bear market secondary trends are sometimes called reaction rallies. A secondary trend can retrace up to 2/3 (usually 50%) towards the starting point of the trend before resuming its primary course.
Daily fluctuations: There is very little opportunity for forecasting daily fluctuations. Overemphasis on daily fluctuations can easily lead to loss.
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Primary trends are composed of three stages: accumulation/distribution, run-up/run-down and irrational pessimism/optimism.
Accumulation/distribution: During the first stage, knowledgeable traders buy/sell stocks against consensus.
Run-up/run-down: This is the longest stage of the cycle. The market begins to move, the trend is identified and trend followers jump aboard/bail out.
Irrational pessimism/optimism: Run-up/run-down is the longest stage of the cycle. At some point, investors experience irrational exuberance/despair, and the knowledgeable investor will distribute/buy holdings in anticipation of the start of a new cycle.
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The volume of trades must confirm the trend. Movement on low volume trades can be attributed to many different ephemeral factors; high volume movements are indicative of the true direction of the market.
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