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For experienced Forex traders
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Zero losses, Unlimited profits
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Market Analysis
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Modern Fiscal Theories on short-term rate volatility
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The Modern Fiscal Theories on short-term exchange rate
volatility take into consideration the short-term capital markets' role and the
long-term impact of the commodity markets on foreign exchange. These theories
hold that the divergence between the exchange rate and the purchasing power
parity is due to the supply and demand for financial assets and the
international capability. One of the Modern Fiscal Theories states that
exchange rate volatility is triggered by a one time domestic money supply
increase, because this is assumed to raise expectations of higher future
monetary growth. The purchasing power parity theory is extended to include the
capital markets. If, in both countries whose currencies are exchanged, the
demand for money is determined by the level of domestic income and domestic
interest rates, then a higher income increases demand for transactions balances
while a higher interest rate increases the opportunity cost of holding money,
reducing the demand for money. Under a second approach, the exchange rate
adjusts instantaneously to maintain continuous interest rate parity, but only
in the long run to maintain PPP. Volatility occurs because the commodity
markets adjust more slowly than the financial markets. This version is known as
the dynamic monetary approach.
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