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The US Dollar Index is struggling to stay above 98.00 early on Friday as investors increasingly anticipate more Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 than policymakers currently project. Traders now expect at least two cuts that year, putting persistent pressure on the Greenback.
White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt noted that President Donald Trump wants to see additional rate reductions, reinforcing market expectations for further easing. Sentiment weakened after the Fed’s latest policy meeting, where officials projected fewer rate cuts than markets currently price in.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 58% chance the Fed will deliver at least two rate cuts by October 2026. This contrasts with the Fed’s dot plot, which signals a decline in the federal funds rate to 3.4% by the end of 2026—suggesting just one cut next year.
The next major catalyst for the US Dollar will be Tuesday’s NFP report for November. Investors will also examine Retail Sales data for November and preliminary S&P Global PMI readings for December, all of which will help gauge the current strength of US labor demand.
Most Asian stocks rose on Friday, supported by a rebound in technology shares after the sector had been shaken by concerns over the artificial intelligence trade following doubts tied to U.S. cloud giant Oracle.The rebound came after Asian markets delivered mostly muted performances for the week, as caution surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and high tech valuations constrained bullish positions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 0.06%, and Korea 200 also gained 1.57% as of 07:35 AM GMT on iForex platform, driven largely by strength in technology and industrial shares. Japan 100 rose 0.93%, while Hong Kong 50 advanced 1.17%, shrugging off weakness among local semiconductor stocks.
China SSE and China SZSE and the Shanghai Composite pared early losses but still underperformed relative to regional peers.
Mainland markets were dragged lower by weakness in domestic semiconductor firms, as investors braced for stronger competition from Nvidia. The U.S. chipmaker is set to roll out more advanced AI chips in China after President Donald Trump indicated he would approve the move.
Gold and other precious metals are still on track for weekly gains, supported by expectations of lower U.S. interest rates next year. The prospect of easing policy boosted demand for non-yielding assets, while a weaker U.S. dollar further strengthened commodities priced in the currency.
Gold was up roughly 2.00% for the week, with most of those gains arriving after the Fed delivered an expected rate cut and signaled a less hawkish tone on monetary policy. Silver was the standout performer this week, supported by expectations of a future supply shortage, resilient safe-haven demand, and the increasingly dovish outlook for U.S. policy. Silver has more than doubled in value this year, benefiting from multiple drivers. The metal is regarded as a haven similar to gold but comes at a much lower price point, helping fuel demand during periods of market uncertainty.
The euro continued to strengthen against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, with EUR/USD rising 0.34%. The move comes as the greenback weakens broadly following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and a run of softer U.S. economic indicators.
U.S. data offered a mixed picture but reinforced expectations that economic momentum is fading. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased, pointing to further softening in the labor market. The September trade deficit, meanwhile, narrowed more than forecast, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The U.S. calendar remains active this week, with remarks scheduled from several Fed officials, including Philadelphia Fed’s Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
Eurozone markets were quiet in terms of data releases, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde indicated that policy is “appropriately positioned” for now. She noted that the ECB could refine its outlook when updated projections are presented in December.
Bitcoin edged higher on Thrusday, though the cryptocurrency remained confined to its recent trading band as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and updated economic outlook.
Bitcoin was on track for a weekly gain of nearly 4%, partially recovering from last week’s decline and a sharp pullback in November.
Despite the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday—its third reduction of the year—Bitcoin has struggled to gain sustained upside momentum. The token continued to trade between roughly $88,000 and $93,000, a range that has defined most of its December performance.
Lingering macroeconomic uncertainties also weighed on sentiment, with the Fed projecting slower U.S. growth ahead and revealing internal divisions within the committee. Bitcoin’s subdued reaction stands in contrast to earlier easing cycles that historically ignited stronger rallies in digital assets.
Broader crypto markets saw modest gains on Thursday, though most major altcoins also remained within established trading ranges.
Oil prices gained in Asian trading on Friday after steep losses in the previous session, supported by reports that the U.S. is preparing to intercept additional tankers carrying Venezuelan crude, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Prices strengthened after a Reuters report cited sources saying the U.S. is planning additional interdictions following this week’s seizure of the tanker Skipper off Venezuela’s coast. The move represents a potential escalation in Washington’s enforcement of sanctions and has prompted shipping companies to reconsider voyages involving Venezuelan crude. According to the report, the U.S. has identified several more sanctioned tankers as potential targets.
However, gains were capped by renewed attention on ongoing diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine. Any progress toward a negotiated settlement could reshape sanctions policy on Russian energy exports and influence global supply expectations. Earlier this week, oil prices eased slightly on early signs of movement in the talks, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
The US 500 and US 30 closed higher on Thursday following a Federal Reserve policy update that was less hawkish than expected. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy US Tech 100 lagged, weighed down by a sharp decline in Oracle shares after the company issued a disappointing financial outlook.
Shares of Oracle (ORCL) plunged 11.03% in their largest one-day drop since late January, making it the top decliner on the US 500. The company’s quarterly forecasts fell short of analyst expectations, and it warned that annual spending would run $15 billion higher than previously planned, fueling investor concerns over its aggressive push into artificial intelligence.
Concerns over Oracle’s debt load also intensified, with the cost of insuring its debt against default rising, as investors feared the company’s heavy reliance on borrowing could mirror the tech excesses of the early 2000s dot-com era.
Investors also continued to weigh the Fed’s Wednesday announcement, when the central bank cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points and signaled a pause on further easing. While some rate cuts remain on the dot plot, the Fed balanced concerns over still-elevated inflation with signs of weakening in the labor market.
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