Markets Brace for Post-Shutdown Reports; Asia Mixed Ahead of Earnings

The EUR/USD pair remained stable near 1.1590 on Wednesday, as traders await a decisive U.S. House of Representatives vote on a stopgap funding bill that could end the prolonged government shutdown.

Late Sunday, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding measure aimed at lifting the shutdown. The bill now moves to the House, with a vote expected around 7:00 PM ET, according to Republican leader Steve Scalise, speaking on CNBC.

If approved, the bill would unlock several delayed economic reports, though October’s inflation and employment data are expected to remain postponed, the White House press secretary confirmed.

In the absence of major U.S. data releases, Federal Reserve officials have dominated market headlines. New York Fed President John Williams hinted at potential balance-sheet expansion, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing the importance of price stability and noting no signs of a sharp labor market downturn.

Across Europe, German inflation held steady in October, aligning closely with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% goal. The HICP rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, a slight dip from September’s 2.4%, suggesting mild easing in price pressures.ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel noted “positive underlying momentum” in the eurozone economy but cautioned that services inflation remains sticky, adding that risks are “tilted slightly to the upside.”

Gold rose for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, reaching its highest level in over three weeks, as expectations of a U.S. government reopening lifted market sentiment and strengthened bets on further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

He added that while near-term consolidation is possible after recent rapid gains, the broader outlook remains constructive, with potential for prices to surpass $4,300 per ounce by year-end—provided that real yields remain subdued and monetary policy stays accommodative.

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed legislation ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which began on October 1. The shutdown had delayed critical economic data releases, including payroll and inflation reports.

Economists noted that the U.S. Labor Department’s statistical agency is expected to prioritize November employment and inflation data, ensuring the Federal Reserve has updated figures ahead of its December policy meeting.

According to a Reuters poll, 80% of economists anticipate the Fed will cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points in December to support a cooling labor market, marking a slight increase in expectations from the previous month.

Oil prices fell to a three-week low in Asian trading on Thursday, extending recent losses as concerns over a potential global supply glut deepened following OPEC+’s forecast of a surplus in 2026.

The decline came despite some relief from U.S. lawmakers voting to end the country’s longest-ever government shutdown, while a firm U.S. dollar added further pressure on crude benchmarks.

Oil prices tumbled sharply on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its outlook to project a small supply surplus in 2026.

In its latest monthly report, OPEC cited increased production within the group and rising output from non-OPEC producers, while also lowering its global demand forecast for 2026.

The group now expects oil demand to reach 43 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, implying a supply overhang of about 20,000 bpd if OPEC+ members maintain current output levels.

The revision aligns OPEC’s outlook more closely with that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a larger surplus. The IEA is scheduled to release its own monthly report later on Thursday.

In political developments, the U.S. House of Representatives late Wednesday approved a stopgap funding bill to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, clearing a key source of uncertainty for energy markets.

The reopening of the government is expected to ease disruptions in fuel demand, particularly after the shutdown forced thousands of flight cancellations across the United States. It will also enable the release of delayed U.S. economic data, offering markets greater clarity on energy demand trends in the world’s largest oil consumer.

The US 500 ended the session almost unchanged on Wednesday as investors rotated out of high-flying tech stocks and into blue-chip names, while attention turned to Washington ahead of the expected confirmation of a deal to end the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history.

Lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are set to vote this week on a compromise funding bill to reopen the government, following the U.S. Senate’s approval earlier in the week of a measure that secures federal funding through January 30.

Given the Republican majority in the House, the bill is widely expected to pass, paving the way for President Donald Trump to sign it into law and officially end the shutdown.

The prolonged data blackout has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rates, leaving uncertainty ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting. According to the Wall Street Journal, Fed officials remain divided on whether to deliver another rate cut, after trimming borrowing costs by 25 basis points in both September and October.

On the earnings front, all eyes were on Cisco Systems, which was set to report quarterly results after the closing bell. The networking giant has benefited from strong AI-driven demand, as major cloud providers continue to ramp up infrastructure spending.

Elsewhere, Circle Internet Group shares fell more than 10%, even as the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings.

Advanced Micro Devices gained ground after unveiling long-term growth targets during its first financial analyst day in three years, reinforcing optimism around its strategic roadmap.