Michael Hewson's weekly Preview for iFOREX traders 16th - 20th of April, 2026: Ceasefire causes new record highs in US Markets

Despite the backdrop of a fragile Middle East ceasefire US markets have not only recovered all of their recent losses, but have gone on to make new record highs this week.

This week’s boost in sentiment appears to be being driven by combination of optimism that   us when it comes to surging energy prices, but also solid earnings numbers, with US banks delivering ahead of expectations due to strong investment banking results.

That said the fear of a fresh flare up is never too far away despite the retreat in both crude oil and natural gas prices, and the reality is that even if there were no further flare ups the global economy is still faced with the prospect of much higher base line inflation due to the supply chain disruptions that are still yet to be full felt. 

This week we look ahead to the latest Q1 numbers from Tesla and Boeing, with Tesla share price enjoying a modest uplift in recent days in the hope that rising gasoline prices will fuel a rebound in EV sales.

As far Boeing, we’ll be looking to see when its various divisions are heading in the right direction when it comes to returning to profit.

We’ve also got a raft of economic announcements out of the UK at a time when the UK, along with Italy and France are being described as the new whipping boys of the bond market, The new PiiGs or the BIF’s as they’ve been described in the Financial Times this week.

Tesla: 19 – 22/04

Tesla shares have slid sharply from their end of year peaks, although we’ve seen a modest rebound in the last few days, with their end of year numbers in January showing a 3% decline in Q4 total revenues to $24.9bn.

Of that total automotive revenues fell 11% to $17.69bn largely due to the pull forward effect into Q3 of the expiring $7,500 tax break in September. Operating expenses were also higher, rising by 39% to $3.6bn.

Operating margins were also lower at 5.7%, down 50bps from the same period a year ago. Net income also fell sharply down 61% to $840m. In the full year, total automotive revenues were down by 10% to $69.25bn, the lowest since 2021, while total deliveries fell to 1.6bn, down from 1.68bn in 2024.

The annual decline in total revenue was more modest, down by 3% to $94.83bn. On the plus side the company’s free cash flow was solid, rising 74% to $6.22bn, and the highest since 2022. In all other areas of the business there was solid growth with a 29% increase in storage deployed, while supercharger and stations and connectors also saw double digit growth of close to 20%.

Revenue here rose 25% to $3.84bn.

On the call after the Q4 results, Musk said that the Model S and X programs would be discontinued and wound down and given over to Optimus robot production.

These models make up a very small part of the production line where Model 3/Y made up 422,652 in Q4, out of a total of 434,358. For Q1 we already know that deliveries have continued to slow, coming in short of expectations at 358k, a fall of 14% on the previous quarter, although they were higher than a year ago. Once again, the Model 3 and Y contributed the bulk of the total.

The energy business appears to be a bigger concern, seeing a big drop in gigawatt hours to 8.8, a sharp fall in the 14.2GWH in Q4. It was also a significant decline on last year’s 10.8GWH. Hopefully the upcoming Q1 earnings will shed some light as to why there was a decline in this area with the shares down at their lowest levels since September last year.  

Boeing Q1 26 – 22/04

Boeing’s share price briefly hit 2-year highs in the aftermath of their full year results before undergoing a decline which saw the shares hit their lowest level in 3-months at the end of March.

We’ve seen a modest recovery since then with the jury still out on whether this US stalwart can restore confidence in a business model which has taken an absolute shellacking over the past few years. Its Q4 numbers saw the business post a 57% increase in revenue to $23.9bn, with profits coming in at $8.22bn, although this was helped by a $9.6bn gain on the sale associated with closing the Digital Aviation Solutions transaction.

Its various segments are still running at a loss albeit at lower levels than a year ago. Commercial Airplanes operating loss was -$632m, while Defence, Space and Security posted an operating loss of -$507m.

Free cash flow saw a big improvement, coming in at $375m, with CEO Kelly Ortberg saying that he expects this to improve to between $1bn and $3bn in 2026.

During the quarter the 737 program increased its production rate to 42 per month and received approval from the FAA to begin the final phase of 737-10 certification flight testing.

The production of the 787 has started to transition to 8 per month, and hopes to stabilise at that rate. In 2025 the company delivered 600 aircraft, the highest number since 2018, and up from 348 in 2024, while annual revenues jumped to $89.46bn, up from $66.52bn the year before. Order backlogs also rose, coming in at a record $682bn.

UK Unemployment (Feb)/UK CPI (Mar) – 21/04 and 22/04

UK Unemployment (Feb)/UK CPI (Mar) – 21/04 and 22/04