Nvidia Earnings & Delayed NFP Report Dominate Week's Focus

The euro continues to lose ground against the US dollar, with EUR/USD edging toward the 1.1600 level during early Asian trading on Monday. The latest pullback marks the pair’s second consecutive daily decline, driven largely by renewed US dollar strength amid cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials.

Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid remarked on Friday that monetary policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” describing current policy settings as “modestly restrictive” and appropriate for present conditions. His tone contributed to fading expectations for a near-term rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign roughly a 46% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction at the Fed’s December meeting—down sharply from about 67% only a week earlier.

Improved market sentiment toward the US dollar also followed the reopening of the federal government. President Donald Trump signed a funding bill into law late last week, ending the record 43-day shutdown and allowing federal employees to return to work on Thursday.

On the European side, inflation concerns remain in focus. Bloomberg reported over the weekend that European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn warned policymakers not to dismiss the risk of cooling price pressures, even as some upside risks persist. Rehn argued that the eurozone economy has continued to show resilience despite trade disruptions linked to the Trump administration’s tariff measures, noting that growth, while subdued, remains steady. He also underscored the importance of maintaining strong bank capital buffers and a vigilant policy approach.

Gold prices edged lower on Monday, pressured by a firmer US dollar as investors awaited a slate of key US economic data expected to offer clearer insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.

The US dollar index extended its advance for a second straight session, making bullion less appealing for holders of other currencies.

Investors are now focused on a series of US economic releases this week—including September’s nonfarm payrolls report due Thursday—which may offer further clues about the strength of the world’s largest economy. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday it is working to update its calendar following delays caused by the recently ended government shutdown.

A growing number of Fed policymakers have signaled hesitation toward further easing, citing lingering inflation concerns and signs of stability in the labor market after two rate cuts earlier this year. Gold, which yields no interest, typically benefits from lower-rate environments and periods of economic uncertainty.

Oil prices slipped early on Monday, giving back last week’s gains, after crude loadings resumed at Russia’s key Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk. Operations had been halted for two days following a Ukrainian attack on the port.

Both benchmarks gained around 2% on Friday, ending the week moderately higher after the shutdown at Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal curtailed flows equal to roughly 2% of global supply.

Industry sources and LSEG data confirmed that crude loadings at Novorossiysk resumed on Sunday. However, the market remains alert to the risk of further disruptions as Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Over the weekend, Kyiv said its forces targeted Russia’s Ryazan refinery and struck the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region.

Market participants are also tracking the effects of Western sanctions on Russian supply and global trade flows. The United States recently imposed restrictions barring transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil after November 21, aiming to pressure Moscow toward negotiations over Ukraine. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are crafting legislation to sanction any country conducting business with Russia and suggested Iran could be targeted next.

Earlier this month, OPEC+ confirmed a December production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with October and November, while agreeing to pause further hikes in the first quarter of next year.

The US 500 finished slightly lower on Friday, but the index recovered significantly from earlier losses as investors stepped in to buy the dip in major AI-related names. A late-session rebound in tech helped offset worries about declining odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

Tech stocks reversed early weakness to close higher, fueled by renewed buying in AI leaders including Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir. Nvidia shares gained momentum ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings report due this week, a release widely viewed as a key gauge of ongoing AI demand.

Elsewhere in the semiconductor sector, Applied Materials warned that spending on chipmaking equipment in China is expected to decline next year due to tighter U.S. export controls. The company had previously signaled a potential $600 million revenue hit in fiscal 2026 from new restrictions on advanced chip equipment exports. Still, Applied Materials said increased corporate spending on AI infrastructure should support stronger sales in the second half of next year.

In corporate news, Walmart shares slipped after the retailer announced that John Furner will take over as president and CEO in early 2026, succeeding long-time chief Doug McMillon.

A series of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials prompted traders to reassess expectations for a December rate cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he opposed a rate cut last month and remains undecided about the upcoming meeting. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also expressed concern about easing policy too soon with inflation still elevated.