In the week ahead: U.S. & Canada GDP Numbers, U.S. Jobless Claims

The EUR/USD pair trades with modest gains near 1.1710 during early Asian trading on Monday, supported by a firmer Euro following signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) that its monetary easing cycle has likely come to an end.

The ECB left its key policy rates unchanged at 2.0% last week and revised its growth and inflation forecasts slightly higher, reflecting greater confidence in the Eurozone economy’s resilience amid global trade uncertainties. ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from offering forward guidance, citing elevated uncertainty, which has reinforced expectations of an extended rate pause at least through mid-2026. These signals have lent near-term support to the single currency.

Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis-point rate cut at its December meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized a data-dependent, “wait-and-see” approach, indicating that further policy moves are not imminent.

The Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, points to a median expectation of just one additional rate cut in 2026. However, market pricing suggests investors are anticipating the possibility of two or more cuts next year, according to CME FedWatch data. These expectations could weigh on the US Dollar and continue to provide a supportive backdrop for EUR/USD in the near term.

Gold prices surged above the $4,400-per-ounce mark for the first time on Monday, driven by rising expectations of further US interest rate cuts and sustained demand for safe-haven assets. Silver joined the rally, climbing to a fresh all-time high, while platinum and palladium also posted strong gains.

Bullion has risen roughly 67% so far this year, breaking through the $3,000 and $4,000 thresholds for the first time and positioning gold for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The rally reflects a combination of falling rate expectations, central bank demand, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Seasonal factors have also provided support, as precious metals typically perform well in December. However, analysts caution that thinner liquidity toward year-end could increase the risk of profit-taking after recent sharp gains.

Gold continues to benefit from a softer US dollar, which has made the metal more attractive to overseas buyers, alongside expectations that lower interest rates will persist into next year. Markets are currently pricing in two US rate cuts despite the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious policy stance.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions after US officials said an oil tanker had been intercepted in international waters off the coast of Venezuela, reviving concerns over potential supply disruptions.

The latest development has added a geopolitical risk premium to prices, even as broader market fundamentals remain bearish due to ample supply.

Geopolitical risks beyond Venezuela have also supported crude. Lingering tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to underpin prices, particularly after reports of recent attacks involving vessels linked to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet. These developments have raised doubts about the prospects for a swift or lasting peace agreement, keeping markets cautious.

According to US officials, the Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela, marking the second such operation over the weekend and potentially the third in less than two weeks.

Market participants noted that the recent rebound in oil prices began following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a “total and complete” blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, alongside escalating tensions linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

These geopolitical factors have helped offset ongoing concerns about global oversupply. Combined with last week’s failed attempt by prices to break lower, analysts suggest the balance of risks in crude markets may be shifting modestly toward the upside.

US equities closed higher on Friday, led by renewed strength in AI-related stocks that extended the previous session’s rebound and pushed the broader technology sector higher.

Investor sentiment was supported by a softer-than-expected November consumer price index reading, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver additional interest rate cuts next year. However, analysts cautioned that the data is unlikely to materially influence the Fed’s near-term policy outlook, as inflation figures for November were still affected by residual disruptions from the October government shutdown.

Looking ahead, strategists expect the global equity bull market to broaden beyond US technology stocks. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast global equity price gains of around 13% in 2026, rising to roughly 15% when dividends are included, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion. They added that, in the absence of a recession, a major equity downturn would be unusual even at elevated valuation levels.

Shares of Oracle rallied after reports that the company is part of a US-based consortium seeking to acquire TikTok’s US operations.

Other AI-related names also advanced. CoreWeave was among the top performers after analysts suggested the stock has significant upside potential, while the company also announced participation in US Department of Energy initiatives aimed at advancing research and innovation.