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Dow extends gains on another extension of stimulus deadline

calendar 21/10/2020 - 17:57 UTC

The U.S. stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) closed around 28410.84 Tuesday, edged up +0.36%, and further jumped almost +0.50% early Wednesday, extending gains on another extension of stimulus (CARES Act 2.0) deadline. Although Tuesday was Pelosi’s so-called ‘do or die’ 48-hours deadline for CARES Act 2.0 before the 3rd Nov election, in reality, Pelosi downplayed the same and said she is optimistic that a deal could be done by the weekend so that the bill would be ready before the election date.

Trump, on his part also upped his stimulus offer much above Pelosi’s $2.2T as the election approaches (political compulsion). Trump said in an interview:

"Let me just explain----I want to do it even bigger than the Democrats. Not every Republican agrees, but they will. I want to do it even bigger because this is the money going to people who did not deserve what happened to them. I would rather go bigger than that number, but we'll see---she (Pelosi) doesn't want to do anything until after the election because she thinks it helps her. I actually think it helps us because everyone knows she's the one who's breaking up the deal----I will take all the votes you can get, whether it's Democrat or Republican."

On Tuesday, before her daily call with Mnuchin, Pelosi said the 48-hours deadline is meant for exchanging legal texts of the CARES Act 2.0 deal: “It isn’t that this day was a day that we would have a deal, it was a day that we would have our terms on the table to be able to go to the next step”.

On late Tuesday, Pelosi’s spokesman Hammill tweeted about the meeting between Pelosi and Mnuchin:

“The Speaker and Secretary Mnuchin spoke at 3:00 p.m. today for approximately 45 minutes. Their conversation provided more clarity and common ground as they move closer to an agreement. Today’s deadline enabled the Speaker and Secretary to see that decisions could be reached and language could be exchanged, demonstrating that both sides are serious about finding a compromise. On several open questions, the Speaker and the Secretary called for the committee chairs to work to resolve differences about funding levels and language. With this guidance, the two principals will continue their discussions tomorrow afternoon upon the Secretary's return”.

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On Monday, Hammill tweeted:

The Speaker and Secretary Mnuchin spoke at 3:00 p.m. today for approximately 53 minutes. In this call, they continued to narrow their differences. The Speaker has tasked committee chairs to reconcile differences with their GOP counterparts on the key are. The Speaker continues to hope that, by the end of the day Tuesday, we will have clarity on whether we will be able to pass a bill before the election. The two principals will speak again tomorrow and staff work will continue around the clock.

On Monday, Pelosi said in an interview:

“Finally, they have come to the table and we’re going to try to get something done---- Let’s make a judgment. We may not like this; we may not like that but let’s see on the balance if we can go forward. Without a deal in place soon, it'll be too late to pass anything by Election Day---and relief may not come until the new Congress is inaugurated at the end of January”.

 On Tuesday, Pelosi said in her daily update on CARES Act 2.0 negotiations:

Since Sunday, we have been making some progress in setting forth areas of agreement and disagreement in order to decide how we can reach a compromise.

Today, Secretary Mnuchin and I spoke at 3:00 pm. Our conversation provided more clarity and common ground as we move closer to an agreement. Today’s deadline enabled us to see that decisions could be reached and language could be exchanged, demonstrating that both sides are serious about finding a compromise.

On several open questions, the Secretary and I called for the committee chairs to resolve differences in funding levels and language. Hopefully, we will receive this guidance soon so that the Secretary and I can continue our discussions tomorrow afternoon upon his return.

The virus must be crushed so we can open our schools and our economy safely and soon. Our heroes must be honored, our workers must be protected, and our communities of color must be respected. All of this is even more imperative with the increase in numbers of infections, deaths, jobs lost, and millions falling into poverty.  How the funding is allocated determines how we save lives, livelihoods, and the life of our American Democracy.

For The People, we will ensure that help is on the way.  I remain hopeful that we can reach an agreement before the election. It will be safer, bigger, and better, and it will be retroactive.

On Tuesday, the risk trade sentiment was also undercut by an adverse DOJ ruling on antitrust against Google/Alphabet on allegations of an attempt to internet search monopolization. But Alphabet closed higher as the market believes that the issue would be amicably settled. Google said: "Today’s lawsuit by the Department of Justice is deeply flawed. People use Google because they choose to--- not because they're forced to or because they can't find alternatives. We will have a fuller statement this morning."

Technical Outlook: SPX-500, DJ-30, and NQ-100 (Futs):

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