Oil spikes on escalated Iran-Israel mini war; what’s next?

·       If Israel indeed targets Iranian oil & gas facilities in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israeli civilian areas, oil may further surge to $85-105

·       As of now, there is almost zero probability of an Iranian block of the Strait of Hormuz, which controls nearly 25% of global supply; but if that happens, expect oil around $125-135

·       China and Europe will not allow Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances.

·       Considering the overall military capability and economic situation of Iran, it may not survive more than 2 weeks of a mini-war with Israel/US.

·       Iran may soon blink, and Trump may ensure a face-saving exit from a mini-war with Israel for the nuclear deal.

Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions stem from decades of hostility over the legacy issue of the two-state solution of Gaza and intensified since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Iran’s support for anti-Israel militias and its nuclear advancements have clashed with Israel’s preemptive military strategy. Recent events, including the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and subsequent Gaza war, have further fueled the cycle of attacks & counter-attacks.

Wall Street Futures slid early on June 13 amid escalating Israel-Iran confrontations:

Israel launched 1st attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as indicated by Trump. Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions and the initial wave of mini warning war have been turning fast into an all-out war of drones and missiles on each other over Iran’s nuclear program. On June 13, 2025, as highly expected and repeatedly indicated by US President Trump, Israel launched a major military operation, involving 200 reported fighter jets- "Rising Lion" targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, including the Natanz uranium enrichment site, and military infrastructure. The strikes killed key Iranian figures, including IRGC commander Hossein Salami and nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi, among others. Israel justified the attack as a preemptive measure to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, citing intelligence that Iran had enough enriched material for nine bombs, which is unprecedented and has never happened before.

Iran’s Counter Response:

Iran retaliated on June 13 with missile and drone strikes on Israel, launching around 100 ballistic missiles and drones, targeting sites across the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The attack caused limited damage, with Israel and the U.S. intercepting most projectiles, but it injured at least 40 people. Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed further serious retaliation, framing the Israeli strikes as an act of war.

The initial impact of the Israel-Iran mini-war on the financial market:

US stock futures fell sharply, and Oil, Gold, and even USD jumped on early June 13, 2025, following Israel's preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear and military facilities, and Iran’s drone/missile retaliation attempt, escalating regional (Middle East) tensions. The US-assisted Israeli strikes, aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, basically aimed at forcing Iran to take Trump’s atomic deal Sunday (June 15) or risk further devastation.

The escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a surge in oil prices, with WTI crude rising nearly 9% to above $74 per barrel and Brent crude spiking over 12%. This heightened fears of potential disruptions to global oil supplies, contributing to a risk-off mood in markets; Gold jumped on escalating geopolitical tensions; USD also surged, along with other haven assets during wartime. The escalation in the Middle East, combined with ongoing trade policy uncertainty, has increased market volatility. But ‘Deal & Peace Maker’ Trump may be trying to seal a nuclear deal with Iran by Sunday's meeting, using an all-out war by Israel against Iran as a negotiating tool.

But Wall Street Futures recovered early Friday US session on hopes of Iran war de-escalation:

In a way, by the start of the US session Friday, June 13, Wall Street Futures recovered almost fully, while Gold, Oil, and USD stumbled as the market assumed that after the initial round of calculated ‘mini war’, there would be no major escalations like we have seen in the last two occasions in 2024 and this time Trump will also help to deescalate the situation by offering (forcing) Iran for the scheduled Sunday (June 15) negotiation table on nuclear issues.

Again, Wall Street crumbled late Friday on an escalation of the Iran war:

But by late Friday, June 13, Wall Street Futures again crumbled, while Oil, Gold, and USD surged after Iran launched a massive attack on key Israel cities including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem involving over 200 ballistic missiles/drones and was also able to beat Israel’s famous ‘Iron Dome’ missile defense system to some extent. Several missiles of Iran hit Israel’s civilian, nuclear, and military facilities ( as per various reports), prompting 2nd wave of attack by Israel on Iran, which again resulted in 3rd wave of attack by Iran on Israel. Israel's public was in a state, something which is very rare despite the long history of such a war of missiles/drones on a relatively smaller scale.

The market initially assumed the latest Iran-Israel/US war of missiles/drones would be one & done after the initial round, but it seems that it’s not the case. Despite Trump/US efforts to de-escalate, both Israel and Iran may be heading for a full-scale, broader war.

Trump’s flip-flop stance on the Iran war:

Since the Israeli strikes on Iran on June 13, 2025, President Trump has made several public statements regarding the escalating Israel-Iran conflict and the potential for an all-out war, reflecting a mix of support for Israel, pressure on Iran to negotiate a nuclear deal, and a preference for diplomacy over military escalation.

June 13, 2025 (Morning-CNN): In a phone call with CNN, Trump expressed strong support for Israel’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military sites, calling them “a very successful attack.” He emphasized U.S. support, stating, “We of course support Israel, obviously, and supported it like nobody has ever supported it,” despite a statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio attempting to distance the U.S. from direct involvement. Trump urged Iran to return to nuclear negotiations, warning them to make a deal “before there is nothing left.

June 13, 2025 (Truth Social Post): Trump posted on Truth Social, reinforcing his stance that he had given Iran opportunities to negotiate a nuclear deal. He stated, “I gave Iran many chances to make a deal. I warned them strongly to ‘just do it,’ but they failed. I said it would be worse than anything they expected.” He also remarked, “Certain Iranian hardliners talked tough, but they’re all DEAD now. It will get worse,” referencing the deaths of senior Iranian officials in the Israeli strikes.

Trump posted on his Truth handle on June 13:

·       I gave Iran a chance after a chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to “just do it,” but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they knew, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!

·       We remain committed to a Diplomatic Resolution to the Iran Nuclear Issue! My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran. They could be a Great Country, but they first must completely give up hopes of obtaining a Nuclear Weapon. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

·       Two months ago, I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to “make a deal.” They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!

June 13, 2025 (Fox News Interview): Trump told Fox News he was briefed in advance about Israel’s plans for the attack, saying, “I was briefed on the attacks in advance, no surprises, but the US is not involved militarily and hopes that Iran will return to the negotiating table.” This suggests he was aware of the strikes but maintained the U.S. did not participate militarily, aligning with his administration’s efforts to avoid direct involvement in a broader conflict.

Highlights of Trump’s comments:

·       Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left and save what was once known as the Iranian empire

·       I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal

·       It will only get worse

·       Trump to Iran on making a deal: Just do it before it is too late

·       The Israeli attack on Iran was excellent

·       There's more to come

·       I had given Iran a 60-day ultimatum for a deal; now they have, perhaps, a second chance.

·       Iran has perhaps a second chance

·       The US was aware of Israel’s plans to attack Iran

·       I spoke with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu on Thursday, and plan to speak with him again today (Friday)

·       The attack would be great for the market because Iran would not have a nuclear weapon.

·       Trump Warns Iran of ‘Even More Brutal’ Attacks Without Nuclear Deal

·       Iran missed an opportunity to make a deal, but they might now have another opportunity

·       Two months ago, I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to “make a deal.” They should have done it! Today is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!

·       Iranian officials are calling me to discuss the situation

·       It's not too late for Iran to make a deal

·       The US still has a meeting planned with Iran on Sunday, but I am not sure if it will now take place.

·       I am not concerned about a regional war breaking out as a result of Israel's strike on Iran.

·       Iran has sustained a devastating attack from Israel

·       Israel's attack could help me make a deal with Iran

·       Trump argued Iran still wants to make a deal

·       Trump’s Nuclear Plan Faces Major Hurdles

·       Putin contacted me to converse with

·       The Israel-Iran conflict should cease

·       Trump and Putin agree Israel-Iran war should end

·       Discussing Russia and Ukraine for next week

·       President Putin called this morning to nicely wish me a Happy Birthday, but more importantly, to talk about Iran, a country he knows very well. We talked at length. Much less time was spent talking about Russia/Ukraine, but that will be for next week. He is doing the planned prisoner swaps - large numbers of prisoners are being exchanged, immediately, from both sides. The call lasted approximately 1 hour. He feels, as do I, that this war in Israel-Iran should end, to which I explained that his war should also end.

Putin in a phone call with Trump:

·       Putin held a phone call with Trump and discussed the situation in the Middle East

·       Putin and Trump do not rule out returning to negotiations on Iran's nuclear program

·       Putin tells Trump he condemns Israel's military operations against Iran

·       Putin confirms Russia's readiness to continue negotiations with Ukraine after June 22nd in conversation with Trump

·       Trump told Putin that US negotiators are ready to resume work with Iranian representatives

·       Trump told Putin the situation in the Middle East is very alarming

Putin in a phone call with Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu:

·       I am ready to mediate between Israel and Iran to prevent further escalation

·       Putin tells Iran's Pezeshkian that Israel's actions violate the UN Charter

·       Putin tells Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu that issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program must be solved through diplomacy

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi:

·       China Condemns Israel Attack

·       China Backs Iran in Defending Itself

·       Yi urges Israel to safeguard Chinese staff safety

·       Israel's attacks on Iran are unacceptable

·       China is willing to facilitate talks

Israeli Military Official:

·       We have already achieved a lot. Assessments continue

·       Israeli air strikes (2nd wave) targeted Iranian ballistic missiles that were pointed toward Israel

·       The Israeli military is still trying to determine how things went

·       We are prepared for this to keep going on for days. It depends partly on the Iranian response

·       Expect Iran to respond with missiles

·       Our air force and navy intercepted drones launched from Iran

·       We began to deploy reservists from different units to all combat arenas nationwide following its strikes on Iran

·       We will bomb Iranian gas and oil infrastructure if it fires at Israel

·       We destroyed an Iranian facility for producing uranium

Israeli Defence Minister:  

·       Most of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' air force leadership was eliminated while convening at underground headquarters

·       At least 20 senior Iranian commanders, including the head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Hajizadeh, were killed in an Israeli attack

·       Israel's overnight missile barrage was the largest attack on the Islamic Republic since the Iran-Iraq war

·       At the very least, the operation might take a few days, but it could also last more than two weeks. It depends on several factors, including the Iranian response, American involvement, and more

·       Iran has crossed red lines by targeting civilian areas

Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu:

·       The battle against Iran isn't over

·       I expect that Iran will attack Israel

·       I plan to speak to the Iranian people directly

·       What the United States will do now, Trump will decide

·       The US knew of the attack ahead of time

·       We have taken out a large portion of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal

·       More action will be taken against Iran

·       Israel to target all Iranian regime locations

Israel’s UN Envoy:

·       We don't know how long the operation in Iran will take

·       We will continue to act until we know that we have eliminated the threats from Iran

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei:

·       Iranian armed forces will leave Israel helpless

·       Israel will not remain unscathed, and Tehran will not go for half-measures in its response

·       Iran will not participate in nuclear talks on Sunday with the US

·       We were in a diplomatic process on nuclear talks with the US. The Israeli attack derailed the path of diplomacy

·       Iranian Armed Forces will leave Israel hopeless

·       The gates of hell will soon open for Israel

France’s President Macron:

·       Should Israel be attacked by Iran, France would take part in the defense of Israel

·       France would not take part in offensives on Iran, however

OPEC Secretary-General

·       Affirms there are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics that warrant unnecessary measures

·       Today’s statement by the IEA executive director regarding the potential use of oil emergency stocks raises false alarms and projects a sense of market fear

·       There are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics

IAEA Chief Grossi told the UN Security Council:

·       The above-ground plant where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60% has been destroyed

·       There is no indication of an attack on underground enrichment halls at Natanz, but the attack on the power supply may have damaged the centrifuges. There is radiological and chemical contamination inside facilities. The contamination is manageable with appropriate measures.

·       Iran says that the Esfahan nuclear site was hit by Israel

·       Israel strikes Iran's Esfahan uranium conversion site

·       Esfahan was hit several times by Israel on June 13

No rise in off-site radiation following the Esfahan attack

Nuclear Issues: Iran vs Israel

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared on June 12, 2025, that Iran was non-compliant with its nuclear obligations, escalating tensions. Israel views Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat, while Iran insists its program is for civilian purposes. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, aimed at curbing Tehran’s enrichment activities, were suspended after the Israeli strikes, with Iran withdrawing from a planned sixth round of negotiations.

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, neither confirming nor denying its nuclear arsenal. Confirming the arsenal could pressure Israel to join the NPT, invite IAEA inspections, or escalate tensions with Iran, which claims its nuclear program is civilian.

Israel may possess nuclear weapons, with estimates of 80-200 warheads (likely ~90 operational), deliverable via Jericho III missiles, F-15/F-16/F-35 aircraft, and Dolphin-class submarines. Its strategic ambiguity policy avoids confirmation, maintaining deterrence while evading international scrutiny. The June 2025 Israel-Iran escalation underscores the arsenal’s role in deterring Iran, though Israel’s strikes focused on conventional and nuclear infrastructure, not nuclear escalation.

Trump’s miscalculation by allowing Israel to attack Iran amid the nuclear talks:

The U.S. has supported Israel defensively, assisting in missile interceptions, but has not directly provided military support for Israel’s offensive actions; although the US may have helped Israel in finding the exact locations (coordinates) of key Iranian leadership. President Trump, who was informed of Israel’s plans well in advance, has pushed for a diplomatic resolution, warning Iran of consequences if talks fail. The U.S. withdrew non-essential personnel from embassies in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, anticipating potential Iranian retaliation against American assets. Trump may have miscalculated by allowing Israel to attack Iran amid the nuclear negotiations. Deal Maker Trump may have expected Iran would give concessions in his nuclear deal at the Israeli Missile Point.

Regional Dynamics:

Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, have been weakened by Israeli operations, reducing their immediate capacity to escalate. However, coordinated attacks by these groups remain a risk. The conflict has also raised fears of a broader regional war, with potential disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil prices up 8-13% on June 13. Even if Iran does not close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's attacks, much of the maritime traffic may be risky for oil shipment. Houthis are reportedly preparing for a massive attack in the region, including Israel and the oil shipments' sea routes.

Economic and Global Impact:

The Israel-Iran mini-war caused gold prices in Dubai to surge to near-record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets. Commercial air traffic has avoided Israeli and Jordanian airspace, reflecting heightened regional instability. Overall, the situation remains volatile. Israel’s ongoing strikes and Iran’s promised counterstrikes risk a wider conflict, potentially drawing in the U.S. and other regional powers. Diplomacy appears stalled, with Israel’s actions undermining Trump’s negotiation efforts. The extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear program is unclear, but analysts suggest it may take weeks to assess.

Trump’s comments suggest an effort to balance strong support for Israel with a push for Iran to negotiate, reflecting his campaign promise to avoid new Middle East wars. However, Israel’s actions against his stated preference for diplomacy have placed him in a challenging position with his base wary of entanglement in “forever wars.” The cancellation of nuclear talks and Iran’s retaliatory strikes increase the risk of further escalation, though Trump continues to frame diplomacy as his primary goal.

Iran’s military capabilities:

Iran’s military capabilities in missile defense, missile/drone offense, and fighter jets reflect a mix of domestically developed systems, aging pre-revolutionary legacy equipment, and limited foreign acquisitions due to sanctions. The recent Israeli strikes on June 13, 2025, have impacted these capabilities, particularly air defenses and missile production, though Iran retains significant offensive potential.

Overall Assessment:

Iran may not be able to counter Israel/US/NATO for long without active direct China support.

·       Missile Defense: Iran’s air defense network, while extensive, is vulnerable to advanced stealth and precision strikes, as demonstrated by Israel’s June 13 operation. The loss of S-300 systems and key radars has weakened long-range defenses, though systems like Bavar-373 and shorter-range SAMs provide some resilience.

·       Missile/Drone Offense: Iran’s large missile and drone arsenal remains a potent deterrent, capable of overwhelming defenses through sheer volume. However, Israeli strikes on production sites and effective intercepts by Israel’s multi-layered defenses limit the immediate devastating impact.

·       Fighter Jets: Iran’s air force is a weak link with outdated aircraft unable to match Israel’s or contest regional air superiority. Potential Russian acquisitions could shift this balance, but delays and training challenges persist.

Post-June 13 Context: The Israeli strikes, which killed senior military and nuclear figures and damaged critical infrastructure, have set back Iran’s capabilities, particularly in air defense and missile production. Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone barrage showed its offensive capacity but was largely neutralized, underscoring the gap between its ambitions and operational effectiveness against advanced adversaries. Tehran’s declaration that nuclear talks are “meaningless” suggests a shift toward military posturing, but its ability to escalate is constrained by recent losses and international pressure.

China’s potential role in enhancing Iran’s military capabilities is now limited but may increase in the future:

China’s existing role in Iran’s defense is rooted in legacy missile technology, with significant contributions to anti-ship and ballistic missile programs through direct sales, co-production, and material supplies. Its influence on fighter jets is minimal, limited to potential avionics support, while drone and naval cooperation shows promise. Post-June 13, 2025, Iran’s degraded capabilities and stalled nuclear talks may increase reliance on China, particularly for fighter jets, missile components, and air defense systems. However, China’s potential role is constrained by U.S. sanctions, regional balancing, and competition with Russia. However, Russian supply/export capacity is now limited due to the ongoing war.

Iran may seek advanced Chinese systems like J-10C jets or HQ-9 defenses, which could transform Iran’s military. But for the time being, China is likely to prioritize low-profile support (e.g., materials, technology transfers) to avoid escalation and US sanctions at this moment amid the escalating Trump trade war and the Iran war. Sophisticated military equipment sales to Iran could enhance China’s “fighter diplomacy,” as seen with Pakistan, but risk alienating Western and Gulf partners.

In the longer run, the 2016 China-Iran 25-year strategic agreement includes defense cooperation, with discussions on Chinese access to Iranian air bases and naval facilities. This could expand if U.S.-Iran tensions persist. Iran’s weakened defenses, limited Russian support, and stalled U.S. nuclear talks increase its need for Chinese support, but China may avoid direct involvement at this moment to prevent escalation with Israel or the U.S. China’s “strategic patience” strategy may delay major arms deals until tensions stabilize.

Iran exports almost 90% of its oil to China:

China-Iran trade in goods and services is dominated by Iran’s oil exports and China’s supply of machinery, electronics, automobiles, and defense materials. In 2022-2023, Iran exported $22.43 billion to China (mostly oil and petrochemicals), while importing $10.03 billion (machinery, electronics, and missile components). China imports almost 15% of its oil requirement from Iran.

Services include Chinese investments in energy and infrastructure, with renminbi-based transactions bypassing sanctions. The June 13, 2025, Israeli strikes have increased Iran’s demand for Chinese missile materials, though fighter jet supplies remain unlikely at this moment due to geopolitical constraints. The collapse of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks on June 14 strengthens China’s role as Iran’s economic lifeline, but China’s regional balancing and sanctions risks limit deeper military engagement at this particular juncture.

China is also strengthening BRI ties (trade diplomacy) with Iran by developing a direct freight rail link, which could be used as a gateway for direct access to Europe. China purchases Iranian oil at significant discounts (10-20% below market rates), evading mechanisms like rebranding and RMB transactions. This trade, valued at $15-$20 billion annually, is critical for Iran’s economy and China’s energy security. To avoid US sanctions/hegemony in the future, China will use direct rail links for Iranian oil instead of shipping/sea routes, often subjected to US sanctions.

Impact of the lingering Iran war on oil supply:

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, handles ~25% of the global seaborne crude oil, including ~1.25 mbpd of Iranian oil to China. A U.S./NATO-led blockage of the Strait would severely disrupt China’s energy security, as ~45% of its oil imports transit this route. China, the world’s largest oil importer, has been developing alternative routes and strategies to mitigate such risks, driven by its strategic interest in securing energy supplies and countering U.S. influence.

Overall, China is planning for a potential U.S./NATO blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by leveraging overland routes, alternative maritime terminals, and diversified suppliers (Russia, Central Asia). The China-Iran rail corridor, launched in May 2025, and investments in Gwadar and Chabahar are key, though limited by capacity and regional instability. China’s diplomatic leverage and sanctions-evading mechanisms (e.g., teapot refineries, RMB trade) ensure continued Iranian oil access, but replacing Hormuz’s ~20 mbpd throughput remains unfeasible in the short term.

Like China/Asia, Europe also depends on the Strait of Hormuz for ~25% of its oil imports (~3 mbpd), primarily from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, and ~20% of its LNG from Qatar. Alternative routes like Saudi Arabia’s Petroline and the UAE’s Fujairah pipeline offer partial relief, but their capacity is limited. The June 13, 2025, Israel-Iran escalation heightens risks, with potential price spikes threatening Europe’s economy. Strategic reserves and diversification mitigate short-term impacts, but Europe remains vulnerable to prolonged disruptions.

Conclusions:

Considering Iran’s limited military capabilities against Israel/US's extensive war machine, Iran may not be able to fight with Israel for long and thus may blink first within the next 1-2 weeks. Although, as the biggest producer of oil and arms, the US is the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war as the largest producer of oil & gas and military equipment, followed by Russia (at least theoretically), and even Saudi Arabia and Iran itself (as big producers of oil). China is also a major beneficiary in terms of potential military equipment to various Gulf countries, including Iran (in the future). But potentially higher fuel prices at gas stations for a long time will also be politically damaging for Trump if the Iran war lingers and the Gulf supply is affected in the future.

The cost of production of crude oil is around $45 in the US, against $15 in Russia, and $5 for Saudi Arabia and Iran on average. As a net & big importer of oil, the EU/Europe will be the biggest loser of higher oil prices, followed by India and even China to some extent, despite the rapid adoption of EV and HSR and other mitigation measures to cope with any supply disruption caused by the lingering Iran war. The US economy will also be affected (inflation) if the retail prices of transportation fuel surge. Thus, overall, the deal maker & also peacemaker Trump will try for a rapid de-escalation and then nuclear negotiations after providing some face-saving exit for the Iranian political regime.

Bottom line

Considering the fragile economy of both Iran and Israel, overall global pressure, and Trump’s growing stance against the long-term Iran-Israel there may be a rapid de-escalation in the coming days. Despite Israel’s threat to strike Iranian energy infrastructure, if Iran continues to target Israeli civil areas, Trump may not allow Israel to take such a drastic action, which will boost oil further above $80-81 in the coming days. And there is very little possibility that Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz, as no other country will allow Iran to do that.

Technical outlook: oil

Whatever may be the narrative, Technically Oil (78.00) now has to sustain over 81.00 for any further rally to 85.00/88.00-90.00/91.00-95.00; otherwise sustaining below 80.50/80.00-77.50/75.00, may fall to 69.00/67.00-65.00/64.00 and further fall to 62.00/60.00-57.00/55.00 in the coming days.