Gold and oil slip on Iran war ceasefire by Trump; Dow surged

·       Trump mediated an immediate informal ceasefire after providing Iran a face-saving exit by allowing it to fire missiles at an empty US airbase in Qatar

·       But the potential fragility of Trump’s Iran and the trade war ceasefire may continue to haunt the market in the short term

·       Trump is now pressuring the Fed Board and also the US Congress to force Powell to start rate cuts from July itself instead of September; the Fed’s credibility may be at risk

·       Apart from Iran, Fed, the focus of the market will also now be on Trump’s tariff policy decision by July 9; Trump may extend the tariff pause

In early Asian session Monday, June 23,  as highly expected, Wall Street Futures (risk assets) slumped, while Gold, USD, and also oil surged after the US surgical strike on Iran’s suspected nuke facilities early Saturday. Iran vowed to take an appropriate retaliation on the US at a proper time and also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for almost 25% of the global flow of oil and other commodities. Although mini war between Iran and Israel is going on unabated, by Monday US session, Wall Street Futures recovered, , while USD and Oil slip on ease of Iran war tensions and renewed hopes of Fed rate cut from July amid sudden shift of dovish Fed talks after Fed’s hawkish hold on June 18, 2025.

The US provided Iran a limited opportunity to retaliate against the surgical strike:

Senior Israeli officials' assessment that Iran will coordinate its attack on the US, drawing parallels to its response after the 2020 assassination of IRGC Chief Qassem Soleimani, suggests Iran may opt for a calculated, limited strike to avoid uncontrolled escalation. This aligns with reports indicating U.S. awareness of a potential Iranian response within 48 hours following U.S. surgical strikes on suspected Iranian nuke sites on June 22, 2025. The U.S. is bracing for possible retaliation, with concerns heightened for both overseas and domestic targets, though specifics remain unclear. Iran’s strategy, as inferred from its post-Soleimani actions, may involve proxy attacks or missile strikes on U.S. regional assets to signal defiance while minimizing the risk of a broader war.

However, experts note Iran’s degraded missile capabilities and internal pressures could limit its options, potentially forcing a restrained response to maintain regime stability. The next 48 hours are critical, with U.S. bases on high alert and diplomatic channels strained. The US has to provide Iran some ‘opportunity’ to fire missiles into some ‘abandoned’ US military assets in the Middle East so that Iran can ‘celebrate’ (like in 2020 during the Solemani killing episode). As per Axios, the Trump administration is preparing for a potential Iranian attack on U.S. bases in the Gulf following its weekend strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Officials say the scale of Iran’s response — especially casualties — will shape Trump’s next move.

On June 23, 2025, reports emerged claiming Iran proxies attacked a U.S. military base in northeastern Syria, specifically in the Kasruk area of Al-Hasakah province, following U.S. surgical strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) on June 22. The reports, cited by Iranian media like Mehr News Agency and local outlets, lack official confirmation from U.S. or Iranian authorities, and details on casualties or damage remain unclear.

This alleged strike aligns with Iran’s threats of retaliation after the U.S. bombings, with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, labeling U.S. bases as “legitimate targets.” The attack is consistent with assessments from senior Israeli officials, who suggested Iran might coordinate a limited strike, similar to its response after the 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimani, to avoid uncontrolled escalation. U.S. intelligence had anticipated potential Iranian-backed attacks within 48 hours, with militias like the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) suspected of involvement, though no group (Iranian Proxies) has claimed responsibility.

Historically, Iran-backed militias have targeted U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq, with over 180 attacks since October 2023, using drones, rockets, and missiles. Notable past incidents include a January 2024 drone strike on Tower 22 in Jordan, killing three U.S. troops, and 2020 missile attacks on Al-Asad Air Base after Soleimani’s killing. The recent attack, if confirmed, could signal a resumption of such proxy actions, though Iran’s weakened missile capabilities and depleted proxy networks (e.g., Hezbollah and Hamas) may limit its scope. U.S. forces in the region, including at bases like Al-Tanf and Rumalyn Landing Zone, are on high alert, with defensive measures like missile interceptions reported in prior incidents. The Pentagon has emphasized force protection, with additional capabilities deployed to counter potential reprisals.

On June 23, 2025, as being highly expected, Iran launched missile strikes targeting U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq, codenamed “Operation Annunciation of Victory” (also referred to as “Besharat al-Fath” or “Glad Tidings of Victory”), in retaliation for U.S. surgical airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) on June 22.

Iran’s retaliatory Missile Strikes on ‘empty’ US air base Al Udeid, Qatar, with advance intimation:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched six short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at Al Udeid, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, located 20 miles southwest of Doha, Qatar. The base hosts approximately 10,000 U.S. troops, Qatari personnel and serves as CENTCOM’s forward headquarters. The operation, named “Annunciation of Victory,” was described by the IRGC as a “devastating and powerful” response to U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Qatari air defenses intercepted all missiles, and the base was evacuated before the attack, resulting in no U.S. or Qatari casualties or significant damage. Explosions were heard over Doha, with interceptor missiles visible in the sky, and GPS disruptions were reported across the Gulf, possibly due to U.S. jamming to disrupt Iranian targeting.

Iran informed Qatari officials in advance, and indirect channels likely notified the U.S., minimizing casualties and signaling a desire to avoid escalation, similar to Iran’s 2020 strike on Al-Asad Air Base after Qassem Soleimani’s killing. Three Iranian officials told The NYT this was a deliberate strategy to provide an “exit ramp” for de-escalation. Qatar officially condemned the attack as a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty, airspace, international law, and the UN Charter, reserving the right to respond proportionally. However, its Defense Ministry confirmed no injuries and a stable security situation. Qatar closed its airspace temporarily, alongside Bahrain and the UAE, disrupting regional air travel (e.g., Kuwait Airways suspended flights.

Attacks on Iraqi Military Sites. Media in Iraq and Iran, including AFP, have reported drone attacks on several Iraqi military sites early on June 24, hours after Iran’s missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Iranian state media, including Tasnim, claimed the “Annunciation of Victory” operation targeted U.S. bases in Iraq, specifically Ain al-Asad in western Iraq, which houses U.S. troops. An Iraqi security official cited by AP reported a single missile aimed at Ain al-Asad, but a U.S. military official told Reuters no attack was detected at any U.S. base in Iraq. Air defenses were activated, and personnel were ordered to shelter in bunkers under a “maximum alert status” due to fears of an attack.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated the attack matched the number of bombs (six) used in the U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites, signaling a calibrated response to avoid a broader conflict. The IRGC emphasized the strike targeted U.S. forces, not Qatar, to preserve “warm and historic relations” with its neighbor. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X, “We neither initiated the war nor sought it, but we will not leave the invasion to the great Iran without an answer.

Symbolic Nature of the Iranian Retaliation on the US airbase: Iran's retaliation is symbolic. This mirrors Iran’s 2020 Al-Asad strike, where warnings to Iraq minimized U.S. losses. The strike’s limited impact, with all missiles intercepted and no real damage, supports the view that Iran aimed to save face domestically while avoiding a wider war. Iran’s weakened military capacity, with over 50% of its missile launchers destroyed by Israel and proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas depleted, likely constrained its response to a symbolic act. The use of the religious code phrase “Ya Aba Abdillah al-Hussain” and the state media’s martial broadcast underscored domestic messaging.

Face-Saving Exits and Negotiations: The symbolic Al Udeid strike, with no casualties and advance coordination, suggests Iran may seek a diplomatic off-ramp after demonstrating defiance. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi expressed openness to talks if attacks cease, though he rejected Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Oman have offered mediation, and oil prices plunged post-strike indicate market relief that Iran avoided disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s prior knowledge of the U.S. strike on Fordow, possibly through intelligence or diplomatic leaks, and its suspected relocation of enriched uranium suggest a calculated approach to preserve its nuclear program while retaliating symbolically.

Potential escalation: There are some concerns that Iran may make at least 10 nuke warheads with the enriched Uranium in the coming days for the nuke deterrent stance to avoid any Israel/US aggression in the future. Further Iranian or proxy attacks causing U.S. casualties could prompt a strong U.S. response, potentially targeting Iranian military or leadership sites. Trump’s June 23 Truth Social post raising regime change, despite pushback from advisors like JD Vance and Pete Hegseth, increases this risk. The U.S. has deployed additional naval assets (e.g., USS Nimitz) and air defenses (e.g., THAAD in Israel), signaling readiness.

Trump announced Iran-Israel war ceasefire-late June 23 (UST):

The Israel-Iran conflict, which erupted on June 13, 2025, has seen significant developments following Iran’s missile strikes on U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq, attacks on Iraqi military sites, and a reported U.S.-brokered ceasefire mediated by Qatar.

Trump’s Truth posts: Peace through strength strategy:

·       Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a non-threatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

·       I’d like to thank the Highly Respected Emir of Qatar for all that he has done in seeking Peace for the Region. Regarding the attack today at the American Base in Qatar, I am pleased to report that, in addition to no Americans being killed or wounded, very importantly, there have also been no Qataris killed or wounded. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

·       CONGRATULATIONS, WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!

·       CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED! Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.

·       On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end what should be called “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

·       Trump also reposted the tweet of the US Ambassador to Israel, Ambassador Mike Huckabee: It’s 3 am in Israel & awakened by phone instead of a ballistic missile as @realDonaldTrump gives the world great news of ceasefire soon to be in place! 12 days felt like 12 months! @POTUS didn’t just “pray for the peace of Jerusalem,” he delivered it!  TY

·       Israel & Iran came to me, almost simultaneously, and said, “PEACE!” I knew the time was NOW. The World, and the Middle East, are the real WINNERS! Both Nations will see tremendous LOVE, PEACE, AND PROSPERITY in their futures. They have so much to gain, and yet, so much to lose if they stray from the road of RIGHTEOUSNESS & TRUTH. The future for Israel & Iran is UNLIMITED, & filled with great PROMISE. GOD BLESS YOU BOTH!

·       We couldn’t have made today’s “deal” without the talent and courage of our great B-2 pilots and all of those associated with that operation. In a certain and very ironic way, that perfect “hit,” late in the evening, brought everyone together, and the deal was made!!!

·       THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!  DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!

Iran’s latest Missile Strikes on Israel before the ceasefire: June 24:

Trump’s last Truth follows shortly after Iran fired another barrage of missiles at Israel, killing at least four Israelis. Israel’s military (IDF) and emergency services reported that Iran launched six volleys of ballistic missiles targeting Israel, with at least one striking a residential building in Beersheba, southern Israel. The attack killed at least four people and injured several others. The IDF estimated 10–15 missiles were fired, with most intercepted by Israel’s multilayered air defense system, though one hit an apartment block in Beersheba, causing significant damage. Sirens sounded in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and central Israel, with civilians temporarily ordered to remain near bomb shelters, but most of them are in a panicky condition.

These strikes occurred hours after U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” on June 23, brokered through Qatar’s Prime Minister Thani. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on X that no ceasefire was agreed “as of now” but signaled Iran would halt attacks if Israel ceased its “illegal aggression” by 4 a.m. Tehran time (00:30 GMT, June 24). Iran’s semi-official SNN news agency claimed Tehran fired its “last round” of missiles before the ceasefire, suggesting the Beersheba strike was part of this final salvo.

Assassination of Iranian Nuclear Scientist Sedighi Saber by Israel just before the Trump ceasefire:

Iran’s Press TV reported that Israeli forces assassinated top Iranian nuclear scientist Sedighi Saber in a targeted strike in Tehran on June 24, just before the ceasefire took effect. The attack occurred near Ferdowsi and Vali Asr streets in downtown Tehran. Israel has killed several Iranian nuclear scientists since June 13, including Mohammad-Mehdi Tehranchi, as part of its campaign to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program.

Strategic Impact: The assassination of Saber, a key figure in Iran’s nuclear efforts, underscores Israel’s focus on eliminating Iran’s nuclear expertise alongside physical infrastructure. This follows the U.S. strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan on June 22, which damaged but did not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and Israel’s earlier strikes on Natanz and centrifuge production sites. The loss of scientists like Saber could hinder Iran’s ability to rebuild its program, though Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons. Iran is suspected to have enough enriched uranium for at least 10 nuke warheads in the coming days, if not already.

Informal Ceasefire Status and Trump’s Role: Trump announced on June 23 via Truth Social that Israel and Iran agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire” to end the “12-Day War,” claiming both sides approached him “almost simultaneously” for peace. He described the ceasefire as phased, allowing both nations to wind down operations over a day, with Iran beginning at 00:30 GMT (4 a.m. Tehran time) and Israel following. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani secured Iran’s agreement in a call with Iranian officials, after Trump informed Qatar’s Emir that Israel had signed on.

Confirmations and Contradictions:

·       Iran: Iranian state media, including Iran National News Network, announced a ceasefire “imposed on the enemy” at 7:30 a.m. local time on June 24, claiming it followed Iran’s “successful” Al Udeid strike. Araghchi’s conditional statement (halting attacks if Israel stopped by 4 a.m.) aligns with Iran’s reported agreement, though no official confirmation was issued. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran accepted the truce.

·       Israel: Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli praised Trump and Netanyahu for a “bold decision,” but no official confirmation came from the Prime Minister’s Office. Netanyahu’s June 23 statement that Israel was “very close” to achieving its goals (dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities) suggested openness to a truce. The IDF’s continued alerts about Iranian missiles indicate ongoing defensive operations.

Netanyahu's Office: June 24

·       Israel officially announces a ceasefire with Iran.

·       Israel will respond forcefully to any violations of the ceasefire.

·       Netanyahu says Israel has achieved its goal of "removing Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile threat."

Ceasefire Outlook and Risks: The ceasefire, if upheld, could end the 12-day conflict, which has killed 657 in Iran (263 civilians), 24 civilians in Israel, and caused $1.35 billion in damage to Israel. The phased wind-down and Qatar’s mediation suggest a temporary halt, but Iran’s Beersheba strike after the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientist Sedighi Saber may provoke Iranian hardliners, though Iran’s conditional agreement indicates pragmatism.

Escalation Risks: Further Iranian proxy attacks in Iraq (e.g., by Kataib Hezbollah) or Israeli strikes could derail the truce. Trump’s regime change rhetoric, despite pushback from advisors, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s vow not to “surrender” signal lingering tensions. The drone strikes on Iraqi bases, if linked to Iran, could draw Baghdad into the conflict, especially if U.S. forces are harmed/.

Trump’s Deal-Making Role: Trump’s diplomatic push, supported by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and envoy Steve Witkoff, contrasts with his earlier gunpoint hawkish stance. The U.S.’s restrained response to Al Udeid and focus on diplomacy suggest intent to avoid war, though any attack on U.S. troops could shift this posture.

On June 22-23, US evening, Trump boasted about the Iran Surgical strike:

·       The damage to the Nuclear sites in Iran is said to be “monumental.” The hits were hard and accurate. Great skill was shown by our military. Thank you!

·       The GREAT B-2 pilots have just landed safely in Missouri. Thank you for a job well done!!! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!

·       Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images. Obliteration is an accurate term! The white structure shown is deeply embedded into the rock, with even its roof well below ground level, and completely shielded from flame. The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!

·       Trump called Iran “a bully of the Middle East” and pressed for peace, warning of further strikes if Iran did not comply.

Trump’s warnings of further strikes if Iran retaliated aligned with U.S. officials’ concerns about potential Iranian attacks on U.S. bases or interests in the region, especially given Iran’s threats following the strikes.

Early Hine 23-Israeli Strikes Continue: Israel launched fresh attacks on June 23, targeting Iran’s Fordow nuclear site again, as well as security command centers, Tehran’s Evin prison gate, and military infrastructure in Yazd province, where nine Iranian security personnel were killed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Israel is “very close” to achieving its goals, which include dismantling Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile capabilities, and also top Iranian political, military leaders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s military also struck missile production and air defense sites, claiming to have destroyed over 50% of Iran’s missile launchers; it seems Iran does not have any effective missile defense system now and is vulnerable to Israel's air strikes.

Iran’s official retaliation: Iran vowed retaliation, with military officials and parliament members stating the U.S. strikes expanded their “legitimate targets.” On June 23, Iran launched missiles at Israel, intercepted by Israeli air defenses. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the U.S. actions a “very big red line” and warned of a “powerful” response. Iran has fired over 450 missiles and 1,000 drones at Israel since the conflict began, though its missile capabilities are reportedly degraded due to Israeli strikes. There are also discussions in Iran about closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, though this could harm its key ally, China.

In Iran, at least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed, and over 2,000 injured since June 13, per Iranian human rights groups. In Israel, 24 civilians have been killed, and 1,272 injured, with at least 16 wounded in a June 22 Iranian missile attack. Infrastructure damage includes Iran’s South Pars gas field and energy sites, raising global oil price concerns. Oil prices have surged, with U.S. futures at $74.84, due to fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, but stumbled to almost $72.50 by early US session as, in reality, Iran does not try to block the Strait of Hormuz.

On June 23, Trump even warned Oil bulls not to play games and boost oil further: EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!

As of June 23, 2025, the Iran-Israel war, which began on June 13, 2025, with Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, has escalated significantly, with the US now directly involved. But the US is now trying for de-escalation and to avoid an all-out war with Iran. The US VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio are sounding less hawkish on Iran policy, maintaining that the US does not seek regime change in Iran and the surgical strike is only against Iran’s suspected nukes, not the Iranian people. But Trump is sounding quite hawkish and directly threatening Iran with any retaliation attempt, and also calling for regime change in Iran. Some U.S. lawmakers, including Democrats and Republican Thomas Massie, criticized Trump’s strikes as unconstitutional without congressional approval. Others, like Senator Roger Wicker, supported the operation but urged caution.

On June 22 evening, in a post on Truth Social, Trump raised the possibility of regime change in Iran, for both MAGA and MIGA (Make Iran Great Again).

·       It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!

This marked a shift from earlier statements by his administration, with Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth clarifying that the U.S. strikes were not aimed at overthrowing Iran’s government but at targeting its nuclear program. Trump’s comments sparked debate, with some MAGA supporters expressing unease, as they interpreted it as a complete departure from his anti-war stance during the election campaign. Trump’s rhetoric oscillated between calls for peace and provocative statements, such as raising regime change, which contrasted with his campaign promises to avoid prolonged Middle East wars. This drew criticism from some supporters, including Steve Bannon, who noted discontent among MAGA followers.

On June 22, Trump posted on his Truth:

·       Great unity in the Republican Party, perhaps unity like we have never seen before. Now let’s get the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill done. Our Country is doing GREAT. MAGA!

·       Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky is not MAGA, even though he likes to say he is. MAGA doesn’t want him, doesn’t know him, and doesn’t respect him. He is a negative force who almost always Votes “NO,” no matter how good something may be. He’s a simple-minded “grandstander” who thinks it’s good politics for Iran to have the highest level of Nuclear weapons, while at the same time yelling “DEATH TO AMERICA” at every chance they get. Iran has killed and maimed thousands of Americans and even took over the American Embassy in Tehran under the Carter Administration.

·       We had a spectacular military success yesterday, taking the “bomb” right out of their hands (and they would use it if they could!) but, as usual, and despite all of the praise and accolades received, this “lightweight” Congressman is against what was so brilliantly achieved last night in Iran. Massie is weak, ineffective, and votes “NO” on virtually everything put before him (Rand Paul, Jr.), no matter how good something may be. He is disrespectful to our great military and all that they stand for, not even acknowledging their brilliance and bravery in yesterday’s attack, which was a total and complete WIN.

·       Massie should drop his fake act and start putting America First, but he doesn’t know how to get there — he doesn’t have a clue! He’ll undoubtedly vote against the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill, even though non-passage means a 68% Tax Increase for everybody, and many things far worse than that. MAGA should drop this pathetic LOSER, Tom Massie, like the plague! The good news is that we will have a wonderful American Patriot running against him in the Republican Primary, and I’ll be out in Kentucky campaigning hard. MAGA is not about lazy, grandstanding, nonproductive politicians, of which Thomas Massie is one. Thank you to our incredible military for the AMAZING job they did last night. It was SPECIAL!!! MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.

Diplomatic Efforts: Iran expressed openness to talks if Israeli attacks stop, but rejected Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” Araghchi met European officials in Geneva without a breakthrough. The U.S. signaled a desire for diplomacy, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating it does not seek war. However, Iran insists diplomacy is impossible while attacks continue. Military analysts warn that even U.S. involvement may not secure Israel’s goal of eliminating Iran’s suspected nuke program, particularly the deeply buried Fordow facility. Iran’s decentralized defense strategy and potential for retaliation against U.S. bases risk further escalation. Geopolitical experts doubt regime change in Tehran is feasible, and Israel’s missile interceptor stocks may be strained.

Conclusions: No one is a clear winner in modern warfare

As per reports, the US has reached out to Iran soon after the nuke strike to convey that it was targeted without any human casualties and not intended for any regime change. Overall, satellite images days before the attack may also indicate that Iran transferred any suspected nuke materials well in advance in anticipation of such a US-Israel attack. Iran also filled up the entry of the Fordow nuclear facility with earth materials to minimize the impact of any MOP bombing.

All these indicate that the US-Israel has carried out the Iranian Nuclear facility strike with advance intimation to Iran directly/indirectly to minimize the overall impact and manage domestic political compulsion for all the stakeholders. The US allowed Iran to take calculated revenge on its empty military assets (airbase) in the Middle East as we have seen in the previous occasion, when Iran’s Suleiman was killed during Trump 1.0, so that Iran’s present political leadership may also manage domestic political compulsion, paving the way for a face saving exit. In Modern warfare, no one is a clear winner, as we have seen in the Ukraine war.

Iran now holds the key to de-escalation as the Israeli PM has already declared his aim to destroy Iran’s suspected nuke facility is achieved. If the Israel-Iran war continues for a few weeks/months, then Israel may run out of its stockpile of interceptor missiles in the face of a barrage of Iranian missiles. And speedy replacement of such interceptor missiles by Israel/US may not be possible due to China’s monopoly and export restrictions/control of military-grade rare earth materials. Thus, unofficially, China holds the ‘Trump Card’ for this ‘war of attrition’, if it lingers beyond some weeks amid Iran nuke phobia by both Israel and the US.

Potential market impact:

Lingering geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to Gaza and the Iran war may not be good for risk assets (stocks); oil may surge further even if Iran does not block the Strait of Hormuz for China’s interest. Gold and USD will gain as a haven asset. Higher oil prices may be a headache for the Fed for imminent rate cuts; Trump may also not be able to focus too much on major trade deals, and extend the tariff pause at least till December’25. All these may create uncertainties, and the market generally hates such policy uncertainties. On the positive side, initially, the market may assume the US strike on Iran’s suspected nuke facilities is one & done, and thus risk assets may also rally to some extent and vice versa.

But the Iran war ceasefire may be fragile for the next few days/weeks, and coupled with that, Trump tariff uncertainty, market (risk assets) may still be vulnerable to overall Trump trade and Iran war suspense. Now, after the Iranian face-saving exit for this cycle of mini war and subsequent ceasefire, brokered by Nobel Peace Prize aspirant Trump, boosted risk assets; Wall Street Futures surged, while Gold, USD slips, and oil plunged. But Gold was also buoyed as the Fed is now preparing the market for the eventual rate cuts from September, if not July, amid unprecedented Trump pressure.

On late June 23 (UST), Trump posted on his Truth, before going the sleep (hopefully):

·       “Too Late” Jerome Powell, of the Fed, will be in Congress today to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had ZERO. No inflation, great economy - We should be at least two to three points lower. Would save the USA 800 Billion Dollars Per Year, plus. What a difference this would make. If things later change to the negative, increase the Rate. I hope Congress works with this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come. THE BOARD SHOULD ACTIVATE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Trump effectively urged the US Congress and the Federal Reserve Board to overcome Chair Powell and go for rate cuts from July. All these Trump policies may be negative for the USD and also UST, as it erodes the Fed’s credibility and independence, something which the rest of the world always appreciates and invests in the US.

Technical outlook: DJ-30, NQ-100, Gold, Silver and Oil

Looking ahead, whatever may be the narrative, technically Dow Future (CMP: 42600) now has to sustain over 43000-43100 for a further rally towards 43200/43600*-44000/45300 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 42900-42800, DJ-30 may again fall to 41900/41700-41400/41000* and further 40600/40100-39200/38000 in the coming days.

Similarly, NQ-100 Future (21900) has to sustain over 22400-22500 for a further rally to 22700/23000 in the coming days; otherwise, sustaining below 21900, NQ-100 may again fall to 21900/20900-20700/20200 and 19890/18300-17400/16400in the coming days.

Technically Gold (CMP: 3350) has to sustain over 3375-3395 for a further rally to 3405/3425*-3450/3505*, and even 3525/3555 in the coming days; otherwise sustaining below 3365, Gold may again fall to 3340/3320-3300/3280 and 3255/3225-3200/3165* and further to 3130/3115*-3075/3015-2990/2975-2960*/2900* and 2800/2750 in the coming days.

Whatever may be the narrative, Technically Oil (78.00) now has to sustain over 81.00 for any further rally to 85.00/88.00-90.00/91.00-95.00; otherwise sustaining below 80.50/80.00-77.50/75.00, may fall to 69.00/67.00-65.00/64.00 and further fall to 62.00/60.00-57.00/55.00 in the coming days.